How To Fix TE427 - Low confidence level: CFaR = 0

SAP Error Message - Details

• Message type: E = Error

• Message class: TE - Market Risk Management

• Message number: 427

• Message text: Low confidence level: CFaR = 0

What causes this issue?

While using the CFaR algorithm 2 (<LS>CFaR Based on Symmetric P&L
Distribution</>), a low confidence level can lead to cases where no
CFaR can be calculated. In such cases, the CFaR is set to 0.

System Response

The system issues an error message and will not allow you to continue with this transaction until the error is resolved.

How to fix this error?

Procedure for System Administrators

Error message extract from SAP system. Copyright SAP SE.

Smart SAP Assistant

• What is the cause and solution for SAP error message TE427 - Low confidence level: CFaR = 0 ?

  The SAP error message TE427, which indicates "Low confidence level: CFaR = 0," typically arises in the context of the SAP system's forecasting and planning functionalities, particularly when dealing with demand planning or supply chain management. This error suggests that the system has calculated a Confidence Factor at Risk (CFaR) of zero, indicating that the forecast is not reliable enough to be used for planning purposes.
  Causes:
  
  
  Insufficient Historical Data: The system may not have enough historical data to generate a reliable forecast. This can happen if the data is sparse or if there are significant gaps in the historical records.
  
  
  Data Quality Issues: Poor quality data, such as incorrect or inconsistent entries, can lead to unreliable forecasts. This includes outliers or anomalies in the data that skew the results.
  
  
  Model Configuration: The forecasting model being used may not be appropriate for the data set. For example, if the model is too complex for the available data, it may not produce reliable forecasts.
  
  
  Seasonality and Trends: If the data does not exhibit clear seasonal patterns or trends, the forecasting algorithm may struggle to generate a meaningful forecast.
  
  
  Parameter Settings: Incorrect settings in the forecasting parameters can lead to low confidence levels. This includes settings related to the forecast horizon, aggregation levels, or statistical methods used.
  
  
  Solutions:
  
  
  Review Historical Data: Ensure that there is sufficient and high-quality historical data available for the forecasting process. Clean the data to remove any anomalies or outliers.
  
  
  Adjust Forecasting Model: Consider using a different forecasting model that may be more suitable for the data characteristics. For example, if the data is highly volatile, a simpler model may yield better results.
  
  
  Parameter Tuning: Review and adjust the parameters used in the forecasting process. This may involve changing the forecast horizon, aggregation levels, or statistical methods.
  
  
  Increase Data Volume: If possible, increase the volume of historical data used for forecasting. This can help improve the reliability of the forecast.
  
  
  Consult Documentation: Refer to SAP documentation or help resources for specific guidance on the forecasting tools and settings relevant to your version of SAP.
  
  
  Seek Expert Assistance: If the issue persists, consider consulting with an SAP expert or a data analyst who specializes in forecasting and demand planning.
  
  
  Related Information:
  
  
  SAP Notes and Knowledge Base Articles: Check SAP's support portal for any notes or articles related to error TE427. These resources may provide additional insights or specific fixes.
  
  
  Training and Documentation: Review SAP training materials or documentation related to demand planning and forecasting to better understand how to configure and use these tools effectively.
  
  
  Community Forums: Engage with SAP community forums or user groups where similar issues may have been discussed. Other users may have encountered the same error and can share their solutions.
  
  
  By addressing the underlying causes and implementing the suggested solutions, you should be able to resolve the TE427 error and improve the reliability of your forecasts in SAP.