How To Fix /SAPAPO/MA727 - R**2 is bigger than Durbin-Watson ==> risk of autocorrelation

/SAPAPO/MA727 - Overview

• Message type: E = Error

• Message class: /SAPAPO/MA -

• Message number: 727

• Message text: R**2 is bigger than Durbin-Watson ==> risk of autocorrelation

Self-Explanatory Message

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Smart SAP Assistant

• What is the cause and solution for SAP error message /SAPAPO/MA727 - R**2 is bigger than Durbin-Watson ==> risk of autocorrelation ?

  The SAP error message /SAPAPO/MA727 R**2 is bigger than Durbin-Watson ==> risk of autocorrelation is related to the statistical analysis performed in the context of demand planning or forecasting within SAP Advanced Planning and Optimization (APO). This message indicates a potential issue with the regression model used for forecasting, specifically concerning the autocorrelation of residuals.
  
  Cause:
  
  
  Autocorrelation: The Durbin-Watson statistic is a test for autocorrelation in the residuals from a regression analysis. A value significantly lower than 2 suggests positive autocorrelation, while a value significantly higher than 2 suggests negative autocorrelation. If the R² (coefficient of determination) is high while the Durbin-Watson statistic indicates autocorrelation, it suggests that the model may be overfitting the data, leading to unreliable forecasts.
  
  
  Model Specification: The model may not be correctly specified, meaning that important variables may be omitted, or the functional form of the model may not be appropriate.
  
  
  Data Issues: The data used for the regression