How To Fix /SAPAPO/ESPP_PR450 - Automatic model selection has chosen the Croston model

SAP Error Message - Details

• Message type: E = Error

• Message class: /SAPAPO/ESPP_PR -

• Message number: 450

• Message text: Automatic model selection has chosen the Croston model

Self-Explanatory Message

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• What is the cause and solution for SAP error message /SAPAPO/ESPP_PR450 - Automatic model selection has chosen the Croston model ?

  The SAP error message /SAPAPO/ESPP_PR450 indicates that the automatic model selection process in SAP Advanced Planning and Optimization (APO) has chosen the Croston model for forecasting. This message is not necessarily an error but rather an informational message indicating the model selected for time series data that exhibits intermittent demand.
  Cause:
  The Croston model is specifically designed for forecasting intermittent demand, which is characterized by periods of zero demand interspersed with non-zero demand. The automatic model selection process in SAP APO analyzes the historical demand data and determines that the Croston model is the most appropriate for the given data set.
  Solution:
  
  
  Review the Data: Check the historical demand data to confirm that it exhibits intermittent patterns. If the data is not intermittent, consider using a different forecasting model.
  
  
  Model Selection: If you believe that the Croston model is not suitable for your data, you can manually select a different forecasting model in the forecasting settings. This can be done in the SAP APO system by navigating to the relevant planning book or forecasting profile.
  
  
  Adjust Parameters: If you want to continue using the Croston model, you may want to review and adjust the parameters associated with it to better fit your data. This can include adjusting the smoothing parameters or the forecast horizon.
  
  
  Consult Documentation: Refer to SAP documentation or help resources for detailed information on the Croston model and its parameters. This can provide insights into how to optimize its use.
  
  
  Testing: After making changes, run tests to see how the new model or parameters affect the forecast accuracy. Compare the results with historical data to validate the effectiveness of the chosen model.
  
  
  Related Information:
  
  Croston Model: This model is particularly useful for products with sporadic demand, as it separates the demand occurrence from the demand size, allowing for more accurate forecasting in such scenarios.
  Forecasting Profiles: In SAP APO, you can define different forecasting profiles that specify which models to use for different products or product groups.
  Performance Metrics: After implementing changes, monitor the forecast accuracy using metrics such as Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) or Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) to evaluate the effectiveness of the chosen model.
  
  If you continue to experience issues or have specific requirements, consider reaching out to your SAP support team or consulting with an SAP expert for tailored advice.