How To Fix /SAPAPO/AMON_ALERTS450 - MLR using POS: Calculated MAPE greater than statistical forecast MAPE

/SAPAPO/AMON_ALERTS450 - Overview

• Message type: E = Error

• Message class: /SAPAPO/AMON_ALERTS -

• Message number: 450

• Message text: MLR using POS: Calculated MAPE greater than statistical forecast MAPE

Self-Explanatory Message

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Smart SAP Assistant

• What is the cause and solution for SAP error message /SAPAPO/AMON_ALERTS450 - MLR using POS: Calculated MAPE greater than statistical forecast MAPE ?

  The SAP error message /SAPAPO/AMON_ALERTS450 MLR indicates that there is an issue with the calculated Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for a forecast generated using the Multi-Level Regression (MLR) method in SAP Advanced Planning and Optimization (APO). Specifically, it suggests that the calculated MAPE is greater than the MAPE derived from the statistical forecast, which is typically a sign of poor forecast accuracy.
  
  Cause:
  
  Data Quality Issues: The underlying data used for the MLR forecast may have inconsistencies, missing values, or outliers that can negatively impact the accuracy of the forecast.
  Model Specification: The MLR model may not be correctly specified. This could include inappropriate selection of independent variables or incorrect functional forms.
  Insufficient Historical Data: If there is not enough historical data to generate a reliable forecast, the MLR model may produce inaccurate results.
  Seasonality and Trends: If the data exhibits strong seasonal patterns or trends that are not adequately captured by the MLR