How To Fix PR412 - Not enough historical values exist for ex-post forecast

SAP Error Message - Details

• Message type: E = Error

• Message class: PR - Forecast: Help messages

• Message number: 412

• Message text: Not enough historical values exist for ex-post forecast

What causes this issue?

The number of historical values was sufficient for the system to be
able to carry out model initialization, but not to carry out an ex-post
forecast.
For more information, see the Extended Help.

System Response

The system issues an error message and will not allow you to continue with this transaction until the error is resolved.

How to fix this error?

Procedure for System Administrators

Error message extract from SAP system. Copyright SAP SE.

Smart SAP Assistant

• What is the cause and solution for SAP error message PR412 - Not enough historical values exist for ex-post forecast ?

  The SAP error message PR412, which states "Not enough historical values exist for ex-post forecast," typically occurs in the context of demand planning and forecasting within SAP APO (Advanced Planning and Optimization). This error indicates that the system does not have sufficient historical data to generate an ex-post forecast for the specified product or location.
  Cause:
  
  Insufficient Historical Data: The primary cause of this error is that there is not enough historical data available for the product or location in question. Ex-post forecasting relies on past sales data to create forecasts, and if this data is missing or insufficient, the forecast cannot be generated.
  Data Configuration Issues: There may be issues with how the historical data is configured or stored in the system. For example, the data might not be properly loaded or might be incomplete.
  Time Period Settings: The time period for which the forecast is being generated may not align with the available historical data. If the forecast period is too far in the future or if the historical data is too limited, this error can occur.
  
  Solution:
  
  Check Historical Data: Verify that there is sufficient historical data for the product/location combination. You can do this by reviewing the historical sales data in the relevant planning books or data views.
  Adjust Time Period: Ensure that the time period for the forecast aligns with the available historical data. If necessary, adjust the forecast period to a time frame where historical data is available.
  Data Loading: If historical data is missing, ensure that the data loading processes (e.g., from SAP ERP to SAP APO) are functioning correctly. You may need to reload or refresh the data.
  Review Configuration: Check the configuration settings for the forecasting model being used. Ensure that the model is set up correctly and that it is appropriate for the data available.
  Use Alternative Forecasting Methods: If historical data is insufficient, consider using alternative forecasting methods that do not rely heavily on historical data, such as judgmental forecasting or using market intelligence.
  
  Related Information:
  
  Forecasting Models: Familiarize yourself with the different forecasting models available in SAP APO and their requirements for historical data.
  Data Maintenance: Regularly maintain and update historical data to ensure that it is complete and accurate for forecasting purposes.
  SAP Notes and Documentation: Check SAP Notes and official documentation for any updates or patches related to forecasting issues, as well as best practices for data management in SAP APO.
  
  By addressing the underlying causes of the PR412 error and ensuring that sufficient historical data is available, you can resolve the issue and successfully generate ex-post forecasts in SAP.